Imagined Future Scenarios
Financial Technology, Possible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from '£22bn for 'unproven' green tech could raise bills, MPs warn' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social stratification arises from uneven access and benefit from carbon-backed currency.
Technological Impact: Advancements in CCUS technologies surge to meet the demand for producing carbon-backed currency.
Ecological Impact: Limited ecological benefits due to prioritization of cheaper, less effective CCUS methods that allow for continued economic expansion.
Economic Impact: Global economic growth fueled by this new asset class, creating new opportunities and potential bubbles.
Political Impact: Nations compete to control CCUS technology and dominate the carbon-backed currency market.
Narrative: Carbon-backed currency fuels unchecked growth, masking underlying ecological issues with technological promises.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Social unrest emerges as the carbon-backed currency system fails to deliver promised environmental and economic benefits.
Technological Impact: CCUS technologies prove inadequate in offsetting emissions, leading to system distrust and devaluation.
Ecological Impact: Climate change worsens despite initial promises, leading to ecological disasters and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Economic collapse occurs as the carbon-backed currency bubble bursts, triggering widespread financial instability.
Political Impact: Political instability and conflict arise as governments struggle to manage the failing carbon-backed currency system.
Narrative: The carbon-backed currency system fails spectacularly, exacerbating climate change and triggering societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social control measures are implemented to ensure compliance with carbon reduction targets and currency stability.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated monitoring and surveillance technologies are deployed to track carbon emissions and currency usage.
Ecological Impact: Carbon sequestration efforts are strictly regulated and enforced, leading to some environmental improvement, but also potential unintended consequences.
Economic Impact: Economic activity is tightly controlled to prioritize carbon reduction and maintain the value of the carbon-backed currency.
Political Impact: A global authority emerges to regulate carbon emissions, currency valuation, and enforce climate agreements.
Narrative: A centralized, authoritarian system enforces carbon neutrality through the carbon-backed currency, sacrificing individual freedoms for ecological stability.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A cultural shift towards valuing sustainability and collective responsibility leads to widespread adoption of carbon-conscious behavior.
Technological Impact: Breakthrough technologies enable direct air capture and low-impact carbon sequestration at scale, revolutionizing carbon management.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological restoration occurs as carbon is actively removed from the atmosphere, reversing some climate change effects.
Economic Impact: A circular economy emerges, driven by the intrinsic value of carbon and the carbon-backed currency.
Political Impact: Global cooperation fosters a shared vision for a sustainable future, driving policies that support carbon removal and economic justice.
Narrative: A collective consciousness shifts towards sustainability, leveraging technology and the carbon-backed currency to create a regenerative future.