Imagined Future Scenarios
Financial Technology, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Trump’s New Energy Policy Kills Electric Vehicle Credits, Paves Way for Old Lightbulbs and High-Flow Toilets' - Gizmodo.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Continued reliance on fossil fuels entrenches existing social inequalities and delays the transition to a more just energy system.
Technological Impact: Incremental improvements in fossil fuel extraction and refining technologies are prioritized over renewable energy innovation.
Ecological Impact: Accelerated climate change impacts due to sustained and increased fossil fuel reliance.
Economic Impact: Short-term economic growth driven by fossil fuel industries masks long-term risks of stranded assets and climate-related damages.
Political Impact: Entrenched political power of fossil fuel interests hinders climate action and perpetuates the status quo.
Narrative: Fossil fuel-driven prosperity continues, ignoring long-term environmental consequences in pursuit of immediate economic gains.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and displacement due to climate refugees and resource scarcity.
Technological Impact: Breakdown of energy infrastructure leads to widespread outages and technological regression.
Ecological Impact: Catastrophic environmental disasters overwhelm coping capacities and trigger societal breakdown.
Economic Impact: Economic depression as fossil fuel assets become worthless and supply chains collapse.
Political Impact: Political instability and fragmentation due to resource wars and failed state capacity.
Narrative: Climate change and fossil fuel dependence lead to a systemic societal collapse, tearing apart the fabric of modern civilization.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict rationing and social control mechanisms implemented to manage dwindling resources and maintain order.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements are directed towards resource management and surveillance rather than innovation.
Ecological Impact: Centralized control over energy production and distribution creates inefficiencies and environmental degradation.
Economic Impact: Highly centralized economy with state control over resources and limited individual economic freedom.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes emerge to enforce resource rationing and suppress dissent.
Narrative: An authoritarian state emerges, controlling energy and resources to maintain a rigid order in a resource-scarce world.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A widespread shift in values towards sustainability and community resilience driven by climate awareness and collective action.
Technological Impact: Rapid innovation in decentralized renewable energy technologies and energy storage solutions.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and restoration of degraded ecosystems.
Economic Impact: Emergence of a circular economy based on renewable resources and sustainable consumption patterns.
Political Impact: Decentralized political structures promote participatory governance and local autonomy.
Narrative: A global transition to a sustainable, decentralized energy system transforms society and empowers communities towards resilience.