Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Tunisia’s revolution 14 years on: ‘The emperor has no clothes’' - Al Jazeera English
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased polarization and social fragmentation due to uneven access to growth benefits exacerbate radicalization.
Technological Impact: Advanced surveillance and counter-propaganda tech deployed, yet easily circumvented by extremist groups who adapt faster.
Ecological Impact: Resource competition intensifies due to population and consumption growth, further fueling conflict and displacement.
Economic Impact: Economic growth benefits a few, leaving many youth behind and fueling resentment leading to increased radicalization.
Political Impact: Political institutions struggle to keep pace with the challenges of rapid growth, increasing instability and vulnerability to extremism.
Narrative: Global economic growth continues unevenly, masking underlying social fractures and fueling extremist recruitment among the marginalized.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal breakdown occurs as basic services fail, leading to mass displacement and violent conflict fueled by extremism.
Technological Impact: Degradation of infrastructure limits communication and coordination, empowering isolated extremist factions.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters exacerbate existing inequalities and resource scarcity, further driving desperation and chaos.
Economic Impact: Economic systems collapse, leading to rampant poverty and creating fertile ground for extremist recruitment and control.
Political Impact: State authority erodes entirely, leading to anarchy and warlordism dominated by extremist groups.
Narrative: Fragile states succumb to multiple overlapping crises, resulting in a complete societal and governmental collapse exploited by extremist groups.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Draconian surveillance and control measures stifle dissent but also erode civil liberties, breeding resentment and potentially pushing individuals towards radicalization.
Technological Impact: Totalitarian states utilize ubiquitous surveillance and AI-powered social control to suppress extremism at the cost of freedom.
Ecological Impact: Ecological sustainability is prioritized through strict regulations and resource management, but at the expense of individual autonomy.
Economic Impact: State-controlled economies prioritize stability and employment, but stifle innovation and limit individual economic opportunity.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes consolidate power through constant monitoring, censorship, and brutal suppression of dissent.
Narrative: Faced with rising extremism, the world turns to increasingly authoritarian solutions to maintain order, sacrificing individual freedoms for perceived security.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Widespread education reform and social programs address root causes of disillusionment, fostering empathy and critical thinking.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies empower communities to organize against extremism and promote alternative narratives.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable development initiatives and climate action empower youth and address environmental grievances.
Economic Impact: Inclusive economic models prioritize social justice and opportunity, reducing inequality and promoting social mobility.
Political Impact: Democratic innovations empower citizens and strengthen governance, reducing corruption and increasing accountability.
Narrative: A global awakening sparks a wave of social, economic, and political reforms empowering youth and addressing the root causes of extremism through innovative solutions focused on sustainability, equity and participation.