Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Plausible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Tunisia’s revolution 14 years on: ‘The emperor has no clothes’' - Al Jazeera English
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social stratification and displacement within Arab states exacerbate existing tensions.
Technological Impact: Advanced surveillance and weaponry amplify the lethality and reach of proxy conflicts.
Ecological Impact: Environmental stress, exacerbated by conflict, further degrades resources and displaces populations.
Economic Impact: Economic growth concentrated in specific sectors serving external actors masks widespread inequality.
Political Impact: Formal state structures weakened by external influence, but economies continue to grow overall.
Narrative: Fragmented nations experience uneven economic growth fueled by resource exploitation and proxy conflicts, masking deeper instability.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and humanitarian crises overwhelm existing support systems.
Technological Impact: Infrastructure degradation limits technological access and exacerbates information warfare.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters trigger mass migrations and resource wars within and between states.
Economic Impact: Economic systems disintegrate, leading to hyperinflation, black markets, and widespread poverty.
Political Impact: State authority collapses, leading to warlordism and ungoverned territories.
Narrative: A cascade of failures across governance, infrastructure, and economies plunges Arab states into widespread chaos and humanitarian crisis.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Reduced individual freedoms and increased social control are implemented under the guise of stability.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated surveillance and control technologies are used to monitor and suppress dissent.
Ecological Impact: Resource management prioritizes immediate economic gains, neglecting long-term sustainability.
Economic Impact: Centralized economic planning aims to stabilize economies, at the expense of individual entrepreneurship.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes consolidate power, suppressing dissent and enforcing strict social order with external backing.
Narrative: Authoritarian regimes, backed by external actors, impose stability through widespread surveillance and control, sacrificing individual freedoms.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Grassroots movements emerge, driven by shared values and a desire for self-determination.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies empower communities and facilitate alternative forms of governance.
Ecological Impact: Renewable energy and sustainable agriculture address environmental degradation and promote self-sufficiency.
Economic Impact: Community-based economies and cooperative models challenge established power structures.
Political Impact: New forms of governance emerge from local communities to challenge the centralized power of states.
Narrative: A wave of innovation in governance, technology, and values empowers local communities and challenges the existing power structures.