Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Tunisia’s revolution 14 years on: ‘The emperor has no clothes’' - Al Jazeera English
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social stratification emerges with privileged access behind monitored borders contrasted with marginalized migrant populations.
Technological Impact: Surveillance technology and AI-driven border security become increasingly sophisticated and integrated.
Ecological Impact: Resource depletion and environmental degradation worsen due to increased consumption and infrastructure supporting border control.
Economic Impact: Economic growth in security industries juxtaposed against the cost of supporting and policing migrant populations fuels inequality.
Political Impact: Arab states consolidate power and strengthen alliances with Western nations through security cooperation.
Narrative: Global economic expansion fuels the demand for labor, ironically increasing migration pressures even as borders tighten to manage the influx.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest erupts due to economic disparities, human rights abuses, and the breakdown of trust in governments.
Technological Impact: Surveillance systems become overstretched and ineffective, potentially leading to data breaches and system failures.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters exacerbate migration crises and strain already limited resources, further destabilizing the region.
Economic Impact: Economic downturns, fueled by resource scarcity and disrupted trade routes, lead to widespread poverty and unemployment.
Political Impact: States collapse due to internal conflicts and external pressures from refugee flows and economic instability.
Narrative: The weight of controlling migration and dealing with societal grievances, compounded by ecological disasters, causes a system-wide failure of governance.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Society becomes highly controlled with limited individual freedoms and pervasive surveillance, impacting daily life.
Technological Impact: Technology is rigorously applied to track, monitor, and control populations, creating a highly managed environment.
Ecological Impact: Environmental policies are implemented by decree to conserve resources and mitigate the effects of climate change, prioritized over individual needs.
Economic Impact: The economy is centrally planned and strictly regulated to ensure stability and control migration flows through incentives and disincentives.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes solidify their power through surveillance, propaganda, and suppression of dissent.
Narrative: A new era of tightly managed societies emerges with stricter regulations, limited freedoms, and advanced technologies used to maintain control and order.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: New forms of communal living and trans-border solidarity emerge based on shared values and technological enablers, challenging the existing state system.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies like blockchain enable secure, anonymous communication and resource sharing across borders, undermining state control.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable technologies and practices are adopted to address climate change and resource scarcity, fostering self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on external assistance.
Economic Impact: Alternative economic models based on circular economies and collaborative consumption emerge, reducing dependence on traditional employment and trade.
Political Impact: New forms of governance based on decentralized decision-making and participatory democracy arise, challenging the authority of traditional nation-states.
Narrative: A radical shift towards decentralized power and technology empowers communities to transcend national boundaries and create a more equitable and sustainable world.