Imagined Future Scenarios
Peace and Conflict Studies, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Weaponising solar geoengineering' - Theecologist.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Polarization deepens as pro-geoengineering factions emerge, clashing with activists.
Technological Impact: New, more robust and 'stealthy' geoengineering technologies are rapidly developed and deployed despite opposition.
Ecological Impact: Geoengineering deployment continues, potentially masking underlying climate issues and creating unintended side effects.
Economic Impact: The geoengineering industry thrives, attracting significant investment despite ethical concerns, while insurance markets grapple with unpredictable weather patterns.
Political Impact: Nations pursuing geoengineering face international pressure but prioritize economic growth and national security arguments.
Narrative: Geoengineering continues despite protests, driven by economic interests and the perceived need to address climate change, leading to a world where technology fixes coexist uneasily with social unrest.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest escalates into societal breakdown and civil conflict.
Technological Impact: Geoengineering infrastructure is heavily damaged, halting deployment and exacerbating existing environmental issues.
Ecological Impact: The absence of geoengineering coupled with pre-existing climate change accelerates ecological disasters and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Global economy suffers severe setbacks due to infrastructure damage, political instability, and ecological crises.
Political Impact: Government institutions fail to maintain order, leading to regional fragmentation and power vacuums.
Narrative: Failed geoengineering efforts and escalating protests trigger a cascade of system failures, resulting in widespread chaos and societal collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Civic freedoms are curtailed to suppress anti-geoengineering movements and maintain social order.
Technological Impact: Heavy investment is directed towards surveillance technologies and automated systems to monitor and control populations.
Ecological Impact: Geoengineering deployment becomes centrally controlled and optimized, albeit with continued ecological risks.
Economic Impact: State-controlled industries dominate the geoengineering sector, prioritizing stability and risk mitigation over innovation.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes emerge, leveraging geoengineering implementation as a tool for control and legitimacy.
Narrative: Governments establish strict control over geoengineering and suppress dissent to enforce a top-down approach to climate management and social control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A global movement emerges advocating for radical societal transformation and degrowth to address root causes of climate change.
Technological Impact: Emphasis shifts to decentralized, community-based technologies focused on resilience and ecological restoration, rejecting large-scale intervention.
Ecological Impact: A holistic approach to environmental restoration and climate adaptation replaces geoengineering, emphasizing biodiversity and natural systems.
Economic Impact: The global economy transitions to a more sustainable and equitable model based on circularity, local production, and community wealth building.
Political Impact: New forms of governance emphasizing participatory democracy, environmental justice, and international cooperation emerge, superseding nation-state dominance.
Narrative: The failure of geoengineering spurs a global awakening and a fundamental shift towards a more just, sustainable, and ecologically conscious world.