Imagined Future Scenarios
Wildlife Conservation, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'From anxiety to coping: Understanding psychological distance and coping skills for climate change and COVID-19 in 10–12-year-old children' - Plos.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased faith in technology leads to complacency and decreased community involvement in conservation efforts.
Technological Impact: Advanced drone technology and AI become ubiquitous, creating a highly data-rich but potentially vulnerable conservation system.
Ecological Impact: Wildlife populations initially increase, but habitat loss and fragmentation due to human expansion offset these gains.
Economic Impact: Wildlife tourism booms, driving investment in conservation technology but potentially at the expense of local communities.
Political Impact: Governments prioritize technological solutions, neglecting underlying socio-economic drivers of poaching and habitat destruction.
Narrative: Technology-driven conservation becomes a profitable industry, but unsustainable growth eventually undermines its effectiveness.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Breakdown of law and order leads to increased poaching and human-wildlife conflict as drone systems become inoperable.
Technological Impact: Lack of maintenance, funding, or expertise causes the AI-powered drone anti-poaching systems to fail completely.
Ecological Impact: Wildlife populations plummet due to unchecked poaching and loss of habitat, leading to potential extinctions.
Economic Impact: Collapse of tourism and associated industries devastates local economies dependent on wildlife.
Political Impact: Governmental instability prevents effective wildlife protection, leading to widespread resource exploitation.
Narrative: Systemic failures render the drone anti-poaching system obsolete, resulting in a catastrophic decline in wildlife populations.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Surveillance and control measures increase, potentially infringing on the rights of local communities and indigenous people.
Technological Impact: Advanced AI-powered surveillance systems are deployed, creating a highly monitored and regulated wildlife reserve environment.
Ecological Impact: Wildlife populations are strictly managed through technological intervention, prioritizing species preservation over natural processes.
Economic Impact: Conservation becomes heavily regulated and centralized, with limited opportunities for local participation or entrepreneurial ventures.
Political Impact: Strong government control ensures the effective implementation of conservation policies, even at the expense of individual liberties.
Narrative: A highly controlled and managed wildlife reserve environment emerges, prioritizing order and species preservation through authoritarian means.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift in societal values towards deep ecology and interspecies relationships fosters a sense of responsibility for wildlife conservation.
Technological Impact: Technology facilitates decentralized conservation efforts, empowering local communities to protect wildlife through accessible and user-friendly tools.
Ecological Impact: Ecological restoration and rewilding efforts create resilient ecosystems that support diverse wildlife populations and enhance biodiversity.
Economic Impact: Sustainable livelihoods are developed, incentivizing local communities to protect wildlife and conserve their natural resources.
Political Impact: Global cooperation and ethical frameworks prioritize wildlife conservation as a shared responsibility, promoting cross-border collaboration.
Narrative: A fundamental shift in values and technologies empowers communities to steward wildlife, creating a harmonious and sustainable relationship between humans and nature.