Imagined Future Scenarios
Augmented Reality, Possible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'How Do Architects Forecast Trends? In Conversation with Research and Inovation Co-Directors of Perkins&Will' - ArchDaily
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased awareness leads to preference for 'future-proofed' and healthier buildings, driving demand.
Technological Impact: AR integrated with IoT and big data provides increasingly detailed and predictive simulations, fueling further development.
Ecological Impact: Incremental improvements in building design and materials reduce environmental impact, but overall consumption still rises.
Economic Impact: Green building market booms, creating new industries and jobs in construction, AR development, and environmental consulting.
Political Impact: Governments introduce incentives and regulations to promote the use of AR simulations for sustainable building practices.
Narrative: Relentless expansion of the built environment, marginally softened by AR-informed tweaks to optimize for ever-increasing consumption.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: AR predictions highlight systemic risks, leading to widespread anxiety and panic about the future of housing and infrastructure.
Technological Impact: Resource scarcity limits AR development and deployment, focusing it instead on crisis management and resource allocation.
Ecological Impact: Accelerating environmental disasters overwhelm AR's ability to predict and mitigate impacts, exposing its limitations.
Economic Impact: Real estate market crashes as properties predicted to be unsustainable lose value, exacerbating economic inequality.
Political Impact: Governments are unable to effectively respond to environmental crises, leading to social unrest and political instability.
Narrative: AR becomes a grim mirror reflecting an accelerating environmental and societal breakdown, offering only a front-row seat to the apocalypse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict building codes and resource rationing enforced through AR monitoring lead to a more equitable but less free society.
Technological Impact: AR simulations become a key tool for centralized planning and resource management, prioritizing efficiency and resilience.
Ecological Impact: Aggressive resource management and pollution control, guided by AR predictions, stabilize the environment at a lower carrying capacity.
Economic Impact: Controlled economy focused on essential goods and services, with limited consumer choice and restricted development projects.
Political Impact: Authoritarian governance utilizes AR data to enforce environmental compliance and suppress dissent.
Narrative: A highly regulated world where AR drives top-down control, prioritizing survival and environmental stability at the cost of individual freedom.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Shift in values towards simpler living and community resilience, with AR used to foster ecological awareness and collaborative design.
Technological Impact: Open-source AR platforms empower individuals and communities to create sustainable building solutions tailored to local environments.
Ecological Impact: Buildings become regenerative systems that integrate with local ecosystems, mitigating environmental impact and promoting biodiversity.
Economic Impact: Localized, circular economies emerge, based on sustainable resource management and community-led development projects.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance structures prioritize community self-determination and environmental stewardship, utilizing AR for participatory planning.
Narrative: AR empowers a fundamental shift towards regenerative living, creating a decentralized and ecologically conscious society.