Imagined Future Scenarios
Augmented Reality, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'How Do Architects Forecast Trends? In Conversation with Research and Inovation Co-Directors of Perkins&Will' - ArchDaily
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social acceptance of AR interfaces and data-driven decision-making in daily life.
Technological Impact: Proliferation of advanced AR devices and increasingly sophisticated building management software.
Ecological Impact: Marginal reduction in energy consumption due to optimized building performance, contributing to slower environmental degradation.
Economic Impact: Growth in the AR hardware and software industries, creating new jobs and revenue streams in building management.
Political Impact: Government incentives for adoption of AR-based building management systems spur rapid uptake.
Narrative: Unfettered technological advancement and economic expansion lead to widespread AR adoption in construction and building maintenance, achieving gradual sustainability gains alongside constant growth.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: AR malfunctions and data inaccuracies breed distrust in technology and contribute to social unrest due to building failures.
Technological Impact: Breakdown of AR infrastructure, including power grids and server farms, renders the technology unusable and unreliable.
Ecological Impact: Buildings, deprived of efficient maintenance due to the AR system collapse, become sources of pollution and resource waste, accelerating environmental decay.
Economic Impact: Economic devastation in the AR and construction industries as the technology proves unreliable amid resource scarcity and infrastructure failures.
Political Impact: Government collapse exacerbates resource scarcity and hinders repair of broken AR infrastructure, creating a vicious downward spiral.
Narrative: Critical infrastructure fails, leading to a breakdown of AR systems and widespread building mismanagement, accelerating societal and environmental collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Centralized control over building performance data increases social monitoring and reinforces pre-existing inequalities in access to resources.
Technological Impact: AR systems are tightly controlled and standardized for efficiency and compliance, stifling innovation and accessibility for individual users.
Ecological Impact: Mandatory AR-based building management systems, enforced through strict regulations, guarantee energy efficiency targets are met.
Economic Impact: Governments tightly regulate the AR and construction markets, creating a stable but stagnant economy focused on resource optimization.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes use AR data to monitor building occupants and enforce strict energy consumption policies.
Narrative: A centralized authority uses AR technology to enforce strict building performance standards and monitor resource consumption, creating a highly efficient but controlled society.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Open-source AR building data empowers communities to collectively manage resources and create sustainable living spaces.
Technological Impact: Decentralized AR systems support localized building management and resource sharing, fostering resilience and collaboration.
Ecological Impact: AR facilitates regenerative building practices and community-led ecological restoration initiatives.
Economic Impact: Local economies thrive through collaborative building projects, shared resources, and open-source AR technologies.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance structures emerge, empowered by collective access to building performance and environmental data.
Narrative: A shift towards decentralized, open-source AR technology empowers communities to create sustainable, self-sufficient building ecosystems through shared knowledge and collaborative management.