Imagined Future Scenarios
Circular Economy, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Let’s bend the curve' - Letsbendthecurve.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Marginal inconvenience is accepted for continued consumption and growth.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated energy grid management systems and predictive carbon intensity algorithms are developed.
Ecological Impact: Incremental improvements in carbon emissions are achieved but overall resource consumption continues to increase.
Economic Impact: New markets emerge for carbon-aware software and energy management solutions driving economic growth.
Political Impact: Governments incentivize or mandate carbon-aware software to meet emissions targets with minimal disruption to economic activity.
Narrative: Sustainable growth is narrowly pursued through technological optimization, allowing for increased consumption with slight carbon reductions.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread distrust and resentment emerge as access to digital services become intermittently restricted, exacerbating inequalities.
Technological Impact: Frequent system failures and inaccurate carbon intensity data lead to unpredictable service interruptions.
Ecological Impact: The system proves ineffective due to unreliable data and widespread circumvention, leading to continued environmental degradation.
Economic Impact: Economic activity suffers as businesses struggle with unpredictable access to essential digital infrastructure.
Political Impact: Government mandates become unenforceable as public trust erodes and alternative, unregulated solutions emerge.
Narrative: Well-intentioned carbon management systems fail due to technical limitations and societal pushback, leading to a breakdown of digital infrastructure and worsened environmental outcomes.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Social acceptance becomes conditional on adherence to strict carbon quotas and digitally enforced limitations on consumption.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated surveillance and control systems monitor and enforce carbon usage at individual and organizational levels.
Ecological Impact: Significant reductions in carbon emissions are achieved through centrally planned resource allocation and digital enforcement.
Economic Impact: A heavily regulated carbon economy emerges, with winners and losers determined by government policy and digital control.
Political Impact: A centralized, technocratic government uses digital infrastructure to enforce strict carbon reduction mandates and manage resource allocation.
Narrative: A top-down managed society uses digital technology to enforce strict carbon limits, prioritizing collective environmental goals at the expense of individual liberty.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A cultural shift towards voluntary simplicity and mindful consumption is fostered, leading to greater community resilience.
Technological Impact: Open-source, community-driven platforms provide transparent and participatory carbon intensity data and usage control.
Ecological Impact: Systems thinking and regenerative practices become widespread, leading to significant ecological restoration and reduced resource depletion.
Economic Impact: The focus shifts from consumption to sustainable and equitable distribution of resources, fostering a localized circular economy.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models empowers local communities to manage resources and prioritize ecological well-being.
Narrative: A shift in consciousness fosters a collaborative, decentralized approach to carbon management, prioritizing ecological restoration and community resilience over economic growth.