Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel leads to greater global interconnectedness and cultural exchange, but also exacerbates existing inequalities.
Technological Impact: Further advancements in aviation materials and propulsion systems driven by increased demand.
Ecological Impact: Minor initial ecological improvements are overshadowed by the continued growth in air travel emissions.
Economic Impact: Economic growth fuelled by increased travel and tourism, with uneven distribution of benefits.
Political Impact: Global governance struggles to manage the increasing complexities of airspace management and associated environmental regulations.
Narrative: Uninhibited growth in air travel fueled by global economic expansion and population growth.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Reduced air travel due to economic downturn and infrastructure collapse leads to social isolation and fragmentation.
Technological Impact: Maintenance and technological advancements stall due to resource scarcity and lack of investment.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in emissions initially, but long-term ecological damage remains due to other stressors.
Economic Impact: Severe economic recession prompted by multiple cascading failures impacting various industry sectors.
Political Impact: Global instability and localized conflicts disrupt international air travel and governance of airspace.
Narrative: A societal breakdown triggered by multiple crises significantly curtails global air travel.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Regulated air travel based on strict emissions quotas and prioritized societal needs leads to a stratified system of access.
Technological Impact: Incremental technological progress focused on sustainability and efficiency, guided by government regulations.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in emissions due to strict regulations and controlled air traffic.
Economic Impact: Planned economic growth prioritizing sustainability and equitable distribution of resources.
Political Impact: Strong global governance ensures efficient airspace management and sustainable air travel practices.
Narrative: A centrally planned future where airspace management is used for equitable resource distribution and environmental protection.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift towards alternative modes of transportation and localized economies reduces reliance on air travel, although innovation might increase some.
Technological Impact: Disruptive breakthroughs in sustainable aviation fuels or alternative propulsion systems fundamentally alter air travel.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in air travel emissions due to technological innovation and shifts in societal values.
Economic Impact: Economic restructuring driven by innovation and a shift in priorities away from carbon-intensive industries.
Political Impact: Increased focus on cooperation and global sustainability initiatives in response to the climate crisis.
Narrative: A fundamental shift in societal values and technological innovation leads to a dramatically reduced dependence on air travel.