Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Three-Quarters of the Earth Has Gotten Permanently Drier' - Time
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Mass migrations exacerbate existing inequalities, leading to social unrest and further displacement.
Technological Impact: Increased investment in technologies for wildfire suppression and drought mitigation, but insufficient to address the root causes.
Ecological Impact: Desertification accelerates, biodiversity loss intensifies, and ecosystem services are severely degraded.
Economic Impact: Economic growth continues, but unevenly distributed, with some sectors booming (e.g., disaster relief) while others collapse.
Political Impact: Increased nationalism and border control measures prioritize national interests above global cooperation.
Narrative: Continued economic growth fuels resource consumption, exacerbating desertification and migration, leading to escalating conflicts.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread famine and disease due to mass migration and resource scarcity lead to societal breakdown.
Technological Impact: Infrastructure collapses due to extreme weather, hindering disaster response and exacerbating societal fragmentation.
Ecological Impact: Severe and irreversible damage to ecosystems, leading to widespread biodiversity loss and ecological collapse.
Economic Impact: Global economic systems grind to a halt due to supply chain disruptions and mass societal breakdown.
Political Impact: Governments lose legitimacy and collapse, leading to widespread anarchy and violence.
Narrative: Desiccation-driven disasters overwhelm global systems, leading to societal and ecological collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict population controls and resource rationing imposed, leading to significant social restrictions.
Technological Impact: Massive investment in geoengineering and advanced resource management technologies enforced by global authorities.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystems are managed through a combination of strict conservation measures and geoengineering interventions.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy prioritizes stability and resource efficiency over individual freedoms.
Political Impact: Global governance emerges or existing authorities centralize power under the banner of environmental emergency.
Narrative: A global governing body imposes draconian measures to manage ecological collapse and mass migration, prioritizing stability over individual liberties.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Increased interconnectedness and mutual aid networks emerge as societies adapt to new realities, prioritizing community resilience.
Technological Impact: Rapid adoption of sustainable technologies and localized resilient systems driven by bottom-up innovation and collaboration.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystems are actively restored through a combination of ecological restoration techniques and adaptation strategies.
Economic Impact: Transition to a circular economy and localized production emphasizing sustainability and resilience.
Political Impact: Power decentralizes, with increased authority at the local level coupled with international cooperation on climate initiatives.
Narrative: Societal transformation driven by innovative responses to desertification produces resilient communities and sustainable practices.