Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Three-Quarters of the Earth Has Gotten Permanently Drier' - Time
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social unrest and migration due to water scarcity, exacerbated by population growth.
Technological Impact: Rapid development and deployment of expensive water-saving technologies, primarily benefiting the wealthy.
Ecological Impact: Further deterioration of water resources as unsustainable practices persist despite rationing.
Economic Impact: Global economic slowdown due to agricultural losses and disruptions in supply chains, widening wealth inequality.
Political Impact: Increased authoritarianism and conflict over dwindling water resources; weakening of international cooperation.
Narrative: Despite rationing, population and consumption continue to grow, intensifying water stress and inequality.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread famine, disease, and societal breakdown due to lack of access to potable water.
Technological Impact: Collapse of critical infrastructure due to lack of water; abandonment of water-intensive technologies.
Ecological Impact: Significant loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services due to prolonged drought and water scarcity.
Economic Impact: Complete economic collapse with widespread poverty and food insecurity.
Political Impact: Failure of governance structures and emergence of localized conflicts over remaining water resources.
Narrative: Prolonged drought and rationing lead to the collapse of critical systems, resulting in widespread suffering and chaos.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social control and rationing enforced through surveillance and enforcement; reduced freedoms.
Technological Impact: Investment in centralized water management systems and infrastructure to control distribution.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization, though not necessarily improvement, of water resources through stringent conservation measures.
Economic Impact: Centralized economic planning to prioritize water allocation and essential services; potential for efficiency gains.
Political Impact: Strengthened authoritarian governments implementing top-down control of water resources and minimizing dissent.
Narrative: Governments implement strict measures to control water distribution, resulting in a more controlled but less free society.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Shift towards more sustainable lifestyles and community-based water management; increased resilience and social equity.
Technological Impact: Development and adoption of decentralized, sustainable water technologies and infrastructure, supported by community efforts.
Ecological Impact: Improved water resource management leading to ecosystem recovery and increased biodiversity.
Economic Impact: Transition towards a circular economy and sustainable agriculture, reducing reliance on water-intensive industries.
Political Impact: Emergence of collaborative governance networks promoting equitable water resource management and community participation.
Narrative: The crisis catalyzes a transition to a more sustainable and equitable society prioritizing ecological and social well-being.