Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Possible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Massive social unrest and migration driven by resource scarcity and climate refugees.
Technological Impact: Rapid, unsustainable technological development focusing on adaptation and short-term solutions.
Ecological Impact: Severe biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, exceeding planetary boundaries.
Economic Impact: Global economic instability and widening inequality exacerbated by climate shocks.
Political Impact: Increased international conflict over resources and climate migration intensifies geopolitical tensions.
Narrative: A frantic, unsustainable attempt to maintain growth despite catastrophic climate change leads to further instability.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal breakdown, mass starvation, and loss of basic social structures.
Technological Impact: Significant technological regression due to infrastructure failures and resource depletion.
Ecological Impact: Further environmental degradation and collapse of vital ecosystems, leading to mass extinctions.
Economic Impact: Global economic collapse with widespread poverty and famine.
Political Impact: Fragmented and ineffective governance, leading to anarchy and lawlessness in many regions.
Narrative: Unmitigated climate change leads to a breakdown of global systems and a descent into societal chaos.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social controls and reduced freedoms to manage resources and mitigate climate impacts.
Technological Impact: Strategic technological development focused on climate mitigation and adaptation, prioritizing sustainability.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization of some ecological systems through aggressive intervention and resource management.
Economic Impact: A planned economy focused on resource sustainability and equitable distribution.
Political Impact: Authoritarian or globally coordinated governance for climate control and resource allocation.
Narrative: A top-down, authoritarian global response attempts to control climate change through severe measures and limitations.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Emergence of new societal values prioritising resilience, community, and ecological harmony.
Technological Impact: Rapid development of disruptive technologies focusing on renewable energy, carbon capture, and ecological restoration.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological recovery and regeneration through novel technologies and sustainable practices.
Economic Impact: A shift towards a circular economy and a focus on ecological well-being instead of economic growth.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance systems focused on community resilience and ecological stewardship.
Narrative: A fundamental societal shift towards sustainability, driven by innovation and a change in values, enables regeneration.