Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Mass migrations exacerbate social inequalities and lead to widespread unrest in host nations.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements increase resource extraction, but insufficient to offset climate change impacts.
Ecological Impact: Continued environmental degradation intensifies climate migration and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Global economic growth is uneven, with some nations profiting from migration while others face instability.
Political Impact: Existing power structures are challenged by new migratory power blocs, leading to increased conflict.
Narrative: Unfettered growth exacerbates climate migration, leading to a world of intensified competition for resources and power.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Mass starvation and societal breakdown ensue as climate migration overwhelms existing infrastructure.
Technological Impact: Technological systems fail due to environmental stress and resource depletion.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystem collapse and widespread desertification render large swathes of the planet uninhabitable.
Economic Impact: Global economies collapse, creating widespread poverty and resource wars.
Political Impact: National governments fail, replaced by localized power struggles and decentralized governance.
Narrative: Climate migration triggers a cascade of failures, leading to widespread societal collapse and a struggle for survival.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social control and resource rationing are implemented to manage migration and resource scarcity.
Technological Impact: Technological solutions are deployed strategically to mitigate climate change and manage migration flows.
Ecological Impact: Environmental restoration efforts are prioritized but face challenges due to the scale of the damage.
Economic Impact: A global planned economy emerges to ensure fair distribution of resources and manage migration.
Political Impact: A world government or highly coordinated global governance system emerges to control migration and resource allocation.
Narrative: A powerful global authority implements strict measures to control climate migration and ensure resource security.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: New social structures and values emerge, prioritizing sustainability and cooperation over competition.
Technological Impact: Radical technological innovations enable climate adaptation and resource regeneration.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological restoration is achieved through technological innovation and changed social practices.
Economic Impact: New economic models emerge, prioritizing community well-being and environmental sustainability over profit.
Political Impact: Decentralized and collaborative governance replaces existing power structures, emphasizing community resilience.
Narrative: Climate migration catalyzes a profound societal shift towards sustainability, cooperation, and ecological regeneration.